The Houston Astros have announced excellent news for Blake Snell.

The Houston Astros should do everything possible to sign Blake Snell.

What might Houston’s pitching staff look like with Blake Snell in the rotation?

The days of only talking about the hot stove are long gone. I know it’s just been three weeks since the Spring Training Games started, but baseball never lasts long enough.

Anyway, with so many false games to watch, the Hot Stove is reduced to a warming dish. Nonetheless, foods can cook quite well on one. This is where Blake Snell and the Houston Astros come in.

Houston’s rotation, as currently constructed (in order, including pitchers who will possibly not (and two who definitely won’t) be ready for opening day).

Justin Verlander

Framber Valdez

Cristian Javier

Lance McCullers Jr.

Hunter Brown

Luis Garcia

Jose Urquidy

JP France

Ronel Blanco

Brandon Bielak

With Verlander, LMJ, Garcia, and now Urquidy on the mend, the rotation is currently constructed thusly:

Framber Valdez

Cristian Javier

Hunter Brown

JP France

Ronel Blanco

After signing Josh Hader, Houston surpassed the first luxury tax threshold. Jim Crane had previously been hesitant to approach the threshold…but it’s possible he hasn’t needed to in over a decade. Look at Houston’s current rotation. Blanco has looked good this spring, and France earned 1.5 wins above replacement as a rookie. Keep in mind that Brown ended just above replacement level, while Houston’s “current” starting staff accumulated only roughly 6 bWAR over the course of the season. If your starting staff accounts for a fifth of your total bWAR, Houston would finish with 78 victories. Not elite.

Sure, use the five “top pitchers” regardless of their present condition, and you’ll have a staff consisting of JV, FV, CJ, LMJ, and HB. That’s more like it, and you can expect a 90-win club instead. The fact is that we have to deal with reality.

The acquisition of Blake Snell will approach and easily exceed the second luxury barrier, resulting in a more severe set of fines. Still, look at the current rotation, which includes Snell—

Blake Snell

Framber Valdez

Cristian Javier

Hunter Brown

JP France

— and hopefully soon into the season —

Justin Verlander

Blake Snell

Framber Valdez

Cristian Javier

France/Brown/Urquidy

That final look is simply an embarrassment of riches, but in the age of extreme pitcher volatility, there is no such thing as “too much” pitching. Last offseason, I trumpeted from the rooftops the advent of the “Four Aces” rotation, and was sadly, very mistaken. If you add Snell to the conversation, and with the return of McCullers, by the end of the season, we could have five.

What would a Snell contract with the Astros be worth? It’s hard to say, seeing as how we haven’t seen Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, etc sign any sort of extension. What it could take to land him…

If I was Snell, and I need to emphasize that I am not, I would go for a short high AAV contract, somewhere in the neighborhood of two years and $80 million. A longer-term deal with a lower AAV, like a five-year $180 million deal would do it too, but again, I am not Snell.

I’m just spitballing here…building sand castles in the air, as it were. What do you all think it would take, and is it worth it?