In less than two weeks, we’ll find out who the Paris 2024 Olympic Games Triathlon Men’s Champion will be.
The Men’s Individual Triathlon, scheduled for Tuesday, July 30 at 0800 local time (0700 in the UK), will be the first of three events in the French city. Aside from wishing the participants the best of luck with their performances, we’re hoping that the race will begin with a 1.5km swim from Pont Alexandra III and that recent water quality worries will be put to rest.
Assuming we’re watching a swim-bike-run race, who are the top candidates for gold, and who do I think will finish on the podium? Here’s my own perspective on what may happen out in Paris:
The top contenders
Ahead of Tokyo 2020, the global pandemic left a restricted form line on which to build forecasts.While we haven’t had nearly that scenario this time around, the cancellation of WTCS Abu Dhabi and a huge collision towards the finish of the race at WTCS Yokohama have left us with significantly less data to work with. Further complicating matters, defending Olympic champion Kristian Blummenfelt’s puncture in Cagliari means we don’t have a good idea where he is.
Putting all of that aside, here is a possibly shockingly short list of competitors that I believe can win the race in Paris:Alex Yee (GBR): After starting as the bookies’ favourite, many people expect the Tokyo 2020 silver medalist to win gold this time around. He won the 2023 Test Event in spectacular fashion, slowing to a jog on the blue carpet before literally strolling across the finish line with time to spare, a class above on that day. However, it is worth noting that his potential strongest challenger, Hayden Wilde, was pushed out of the race in the first few metres.
Yee’s season record is faultless, with three wins in three starts, including another epic clash with Hayden Wilde at WTCS Cagliari. His other races were far more low-key, including a Europe Triathlon Cup super sprint and a French Grand Prix, when another Yee-Wilde fight ended with a puncture for the Kiwi.Prospects? The best. Alex Yee is the short-priced favourite for a reason, but it is far from certain. He had a good opportunity of becoming World Triathlon Champion going into the WTCS Championships Finals in 2021, 2022, and 2023, but he couldn’t seal the deal. Racing in Paris, with two French World Champions in their elite lineup, will also mean competing against home advantage, with the home audience roaring for Coninx, Bergere, and Le Corre.
Hayden Wilde (NZL): From Brownlee(s) vs. Gomez to Yee vs. Wilde, Hayden and Alex’s friendly rivalry has quickly become the current generation’s headlining act. After winning silver and bronze (Wilde) in Tokyo three years ago, it would come as no surprise if they topped the podium again this year.
They performed another epic in Cagliari this year, with Yee once again holding the advantage in the final few hundred metres. Both look to have swim form that will allow them to be near to the lead in Paris, though the strong currents and technical aspect of the Seine route might throw them off.I believe Wilde has better strength on the bike, but the design of the Paris route appears to make that tough to create a major difference. Having Sam Dickinson as an insurance policy in the ‘pilot’ role might also be beneficial for Yee, as he proved so well at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and in Cagliari.
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