This Sunday, the Cup Series returns to the West for its second road-course race of the season, the Toyota/Save-Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
This week, the advanced metrics predict Chase Elliott to win for the second time this year and his first career triumph at Sonoma. Elliott was formerly thought to be the best road-course driver among active participants, having won seven such races in his career.
Since Elliott’s previous road-course win at Road America in 2021, the distance between him and the rest of the Cup field in terms of turning left and right has narrowed. However, there are good reasons to believe the 2020 champion will return to vintage form in Sonoma.
He has finished in the top 20 in all 24 races, and his 9.87 average finish – a career high through 15 races — is still the highest in the Cup field.
Elliott’s recent numbers at Sonoma also indicate he’s due to break through soon. He’s one of four drivers to finish in the top 10 in both Sonoma races in the Next Gen era. His 97 laps run in the top five rank fourth over that same span. And with how strong the No. 9 team has looked all season in terms of pace and on pit road, there’s good reason to favor the team this Sunday.
Behind Elliott in the projections are 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick, Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell. Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher and AJ Allmendinger complete the projected top 10.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
WILLIAM BYRON: Byron has won two of the last three road-course races (Watkins Glen, Circuit of The Americas), finishing second in the other (Charlotte Motor Speedway road course). He is also the only driver to claim four poles on four different road courses.
TY GIBBS: It’s only a matter of time until Gibbs steps into Victory Lane. He’s remained consistent all year, and what better way to earn career win No. 1 and provisionally lock into the playoffs than winning at a road course in the Wild West and then having a celebratory glass of wine?
MICHAEL MCDOWELL: McDowell has won three poles this year, proving there’s speed in the No. 34 Ford. Look for that trend to continue for McDowell at Sonoma. He finished in the top 10 in both Next Gen races at the circuit and won at the Indy Road Course last year.
AJ ALLMENDINGER: Allmendinger will be back in the No. 16 Chevrolet this weekend, and as a proven road-course ringer, it’s hard to count him out. He upset the playoff field at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course with a win in the Round of 12 last year. Allmendinger also finished sixth at COTA earlier this season.
CAM WATERS & WILL BROWN: Two Australian Supercars regulars will be making Cup debuts this weekend. Similar to Shane van Gisbergen, it’s a long shot for either of them to win over a field of regulars — especially at a track the Cup Series regularly visits — but not out of the realm of possibilities. Plus, it will be interesting to see how they fare in a car that comparably handles to Supercars on a tough circuit.
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